DRAM prices expected to enter a downward phase in 2022
🟩DRAM prices down 15-20% in 2022
According to TrendForce, DRAM prices are expected to fall from the fourth quarter of 2021 and DRAM prices in 2022 will be -15-20% year-on-year.
supply +17.9% > demand +16.3%
DRAM supply will increase by 17.9%, while demand will increase by only 16.3%, with demand outpacing supply. The DRAM market in 2022 will be determined by suppliers’ capacity expansion strategies for growing demand.
DRAM gross sales flat
Meanwhile, total DRAM shipments are expected to grow by +15-20% in 2021. Therefore, the increase in shipments will be offset by lower prices, and total DRAM sales in 2022 will remain flat at +0.3%.
🟩Causes of increased DRAM supply
The increase in DRAM supply is due to the 1α nm process generation that is undergoing a transition. Manufacturers are working to improve yields between 1z nm and 1α nm and supply volumes are expected to increase.
- DRAM 10nm generation process
- 2016~ 1st generation 1x nm (19~18nm)
- 2017~ 2nd generation 1y nm (17~16nm)
- 2019~ 3rd generation 1z nm (16~15nm)
- 2021~ 4th generation 1α nm (15~14nm)
Each of the top three companies with a 90% DRAM market share will increase year-on-year. As a result, total DRAM supply is projected to increase by 17.9% in 2022.
- Top 3 DRAM Suppliers 2021 Supply
- +19.6% Samsung Electronics (Korea)
- +17.7% SK Hynix (Korea)
- +16.3% Micron Technology (US)
🟩Causes of Changes in DRAM Demand
DRAM demand is expected to increase by 16.3% in 2022. However, demand will not grow as much as in 2021, so supply is expected to outstrip.
- Demand Plus Areas
- +15% Smartphones
- +20% Servers
With the release of the new model, smartphone production is expected to increase modestly by 3.5% year-on-year. As the amount of DRAM used in a single smartphone is increasing, the demand for mobile DRAM is expected to increase by 15%.
Due primarily to cloud data center expansion, total server shipments are expected to grow by 4.3% in 2022. With Intel Ice Lake CPUs rising in market share, SapphireRapids, the next generation of Xeon server CPUs, will be coming next year. With that benefit, server DRAM demand is projected to increase by 20% in 2022.
- Negative demand areas
- -7% Notebook PCs
Annual notebook shipments are projected to decline by nearly 7% year-over-year due to rising immunization rates in Europe and North America. High demand for educational laptops in the first half of 2021 boosted the demand for Chromebooks, but now demand is declining. Instead, we are shifting to commercial laptops with more DRAM capacity.
DRAM prices will fall sharply in 2022, but total DRAM shipments expected to increase
Total DRAM shipments will continue to grow, but if prices go down to improve productivity, that’s good for consumers.