ASML, the Dutch lithography-equipment maker that holds a near-monopoly on EUV systems (ASML Holding N.V., Euronext Amsterdam: ASML), has announced plans to raise Low-NA EUV lithography capacity by roughly 30% in both 2027 and 2028, alongside its Q2 2026 earnings. The move is driven by surging demand for AI-related semiconductors, and ASML also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance.
What This Article Covers
- ASML’s stated capacity-expansion plans for EUV and DUV lithography systems
- Key figures from ASML’s Q2 2026 earnings and the raised full-year guidance
- The AI-driven demand behind the expansion and how major customers are responding
- What remains unconfirmed (the formal 2028 decision, customer-by-customer allocation)
Overview
ASML reported Q2 2026 revenue of €9.33 billion and EPS of €7.59, both above market expectations. On the back of this, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from the €36-40 billion range to €43-45 billion — its second major upward revision this year. For Q3 (July-September), ASML guided net sales of €11.0-12.0 billion with a gross margin of 55-57%, pointing to accelerating system deliveries in the second half of the year.
At the same time, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet outlined plans to increase Low-NA EUV system production capacity by roughly 30% in 2027, up from about 65 systems in 2026. For 2028, ASML is also evaluating a further 30% increase across both EUV and DUV (deep ultraviolet immersion) systems. DUV immersion capacity currently stands at roughly 130 units per year, with similar scaling under consideration for 2027 and 2028.
Details
Key points confirmed across multiple independent reports:
- Low-NA EUV capacity to rise roughly 30% in 2027, from about 65 systems in 2026
- A further 30% increase under evaluation for 2028, across both EUV and DUV (not yet formally committed)
- Reports indicate 2027’s expanded capacity is already largely booked by existing customer commitments
- ASML is also working to cut manufacturing and inspection cycle time from 22 weeks to 15-16 weeks
- ASML’s EUV business is expected to grow 45% year-over-year for full-year 2026
- Intel plans to be the first customer to put ASML’s next-generation High-NA EUV tools into actual production use, for its “Panther Lake” chips
ASML’s direct customers are TSMC, Samsung Foundry, and Intel Foundry. CEO Fouquet noted that major customers — including TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Intel — are all accelerating their own capacity-expansion plans.
Industry Impact
Because ASML supplies EUV lithography systems on a near-exclusive basis, its production capacity effectively sets the ceiling for the industry’s overall supply of leading-edge chips — AI accelerators, advanced logic, and HBM memory among them. As companies roll out 2nm-class, HBM4-generation products — from AMD’s Instinct MI455X to Nvidia’s next-generation GPUs and various AI server CPUs — ASML’s capacity expansion is a key variable in whether these supply constraints ease.
At the same time, reports that 2027’s added capacity is already largely committed suggest that demand may continue to outstrip supply for the near term. Whether the 2028 expansion is formally confirmed is something to watch in ASML’s upcoming earnings reports.
Relevance to Japan
Based on the sources confirmed so far, there is no specific indication that ASML’s capacity expansion translates into concrete new orders for Japanese suppliers. That said, ASML’s EUV systems depend on a supply chain that includes light-source technology (via its U.S. subsidiary Cymer) as well as optical components, photoresist materials, and cleaning/inspection equipment — areas where Japanese manufacturers hold significant strength. As ASML’s production ramps up, this could have knock-off effects on order volumes for Japanese component and materials suppliers, which is worth tracking through future earnings and capex announcements.
What to Watch Next
- Whether the 2028 capacity expansion is formally confirmed
- Details of customer-by-customer allocation among TSMC, Samsung, and Intel
- How widely High-NA EUV moves into production beyond Intel
- Progress on cutting manufacturing/inspection cycle time from 22 to 15-16 weeks
- Order trends among Japanese component and materials suppliers
We will update this article as these points become clear.
Summary
Alongside raising its full-year guidance in Q2 2026 earnings, ASML outlined plans to expand Low-NA EUV lithography capacity by roughly 30% in 2027, with a further 30% increase under evaluation for 2028. Surging AI-related chip demand is the driving force, with capex acceleration from major customers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel pushing up demand for ASML’s systems. Several points — including formal confirmation of the 2028 expansion and customer-level allocation — remain unconfirmed, and we will continue to track official announcements.
