AI servers will be the main driver of memory demand in the memory market in 2024, while consumer demand remains sluggish. As a result, memory price growth is expected to slow significantly in the fourth quarter.
🟦 Current status and future trends of the memory market
In the third quarter of 2024, AI servers are leading the memory demand in the memory market. In particular, the expansion of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production is expected to increase the average price of DRAM as a whole by 8~13%. On the other hand, consumer demand for conventional DRAM continues to be sluggish, and price growth is expected to be only 0~5%. Smartphone brands continue to remain cautious, and this move is causing a slowdown in the memory market.
🟦 Reasons for the slowdown in prices: Changes in the balance between supply and demand
The reason behind the slowdown in prices is that demand for AI servers is growing, while demand for consumer memory is sluggish. Server OEMs have shown a certain appetite to buy, but demand has been subdued as the smartphone market continues to reduce inventory. In addition, Chinese manufacturers are increasing the production of DDR4, which is putting downward pressure on prices across the market. As a result of this imbalance between supply and demand, the overall memory market has seen a slowdown in price growth.
Difference Between DDR, GDDR and HBM
- DDR (Double Data Rate) is the memory used in general computers and smartphones. It is characterized by fast data reading and writing speed and low power consumption. DDR4 is currently the dominant model, but DDR5 is also slowly becoming more popular.
- GDDR (Graphics Double Data Rate) is the memory used for graphics cards. It specializes in graphics processing and is used in situations where high-load graphics processing is required, such as videos and games. Faster models are coming to the market, such as GDDR6 and GDDR6X.
- HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the latest technology and is especially used for AI servers and high-performance computers. Compared to conventional memory, HBM is characterized by its ability to process large amounts of data at the same time, at a very high speed of data.
🟦Summary
The memory market in 2024 is supported by increased demand from AI servers, but price growth is slowing due to weak consumer demand. HBM’s increased production has driven the overall DRAM price increase, while the price increase for conventional DRAM has been modest.
We can see that the changes in the memory market are very dynamic. While the market is supported by the increasing demand for AI servers, the downturn in the consumer market such as smartphones is having an impact, and price trends are also becoming more complex.