While the DRAM market has recovered in price due to inventory reductions, the risk of oversupply and the growth of a new product category HBM are expected to be the focus of 2025.
🟦 DRAM Market Outlook and Challenges for 2025
In 2024, prices rebounded in the DRAM market on the back of inventory reductions, but the momentum waned in the fourth quarter and supply is showing signs of stabilizing. According to TrendForce, which researches trends in the semiconductor industry, DRAM bit shipments are expected to increase by about 25% year-on-year in 2025, but there is also a risk of price declines due to oversupply. In particular, in addition to traditional DRAM products, the new HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) category is growing rapidly, and this growth is expected to have a significant impact on the overall market supply structure.
🟦 Oversupply and the Factors Behind HBM’s Growth
The increase in DRAM supply in 2025 is largely due to the increase in production capacity of Chinese companies. Due in part to geopolitical influences, Chinese players are rapidly expanding their DRAM supply, while DRAM manufacturers in other regions, such as the United States and South Korea, are shifting to HBM, which is a particularly high-value-added product. With the increasing demand for AI, HBM’s ability to process data at high speeds has become a central source of revenue for leading manufacturers such as SK hynix, and is expected to grow further in 2025.
While the increase in shipments of conventional DRAM bits is only about 20%, this means that HBM’s impact on the market is very significant.
🟦 Summary
In 2024, the DRAM market experienced inventory reductions and price recovery, but it has been pointed out that the risk of oversupply and price declines may increase in 2025. In addition, HBM’s growth is expected to increase on the back of demand for AI and high-performance computing, making it a new pillar of the DRAM market.
With the progress of domestic production of DRAM in China, production is also gradually increasing. Along with this, DRAM consumption in China is also increasing, and it seems that it is starting to affect the DRAM supply situation worldwide.
